Inventories of major manufacturing industries such

2022-08-01
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The inventory of major manufacturing industries such as steel machinery and automobile has increased rapidly. The inventory of major manufacturing industries such as steel machinery and automobile has increased rapidly. Introduction: since 2013, the plate market represented by hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium and heavy plate has been in a weak downward pattern, further dragging down the decline of the entire steel market. Previously, the manufacturing PMI index, which reflects the activity of the industrial industry, fell slightly for two consecutive months, indicating that China's economy is picking up

since 2013, the plate market represented by hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium and heavy plate has been in a weak downward pattern, further dragging down the decline of the entire steel market. Previously, the manufacturing PMI index, which reflects the activity of the industrial sector, fell slightly for two consecutive months, indicating that China's economic recovery is weak. Recently, it has been reported that the inventories of major manufacturing industries, including steel, machinery and automobile, have increased rapidly. Coupled with the weak economic recovery, it indicates that related industries will face a new round of de stocking pressure in the coming period of time

since the Spring Festival, the overall market prices of hot-rolled, cold-rolled, medium and heavy plate and other major plates have shown a high fluctuation downward pattern, which is mainly caused by the combination of increased upstream supply and weak downstream demand. Previously, driven by the strong expectation of the new urbanization construction, machinery manufacturing and other industries actively rebuilt their industrial inventories. Later, with the release of the new urbanization plan continuously postponed, the downstream demand market also continued to amplify the number of effective pulses by four times. Under the condition of high inventories, the production enthusiasm of various industries gradually decreased. By may, except for the steel industry, Most of the other industries have shifted from industry inventory reconstruction to de inventory digestion

the production and sales volume of the machinery industry rebounded, but the output growth rate fell in April

China's construction machinery industry has the problem of overcapacity. However, affected by the expectation of real estate regulation, the construction machinery industry as a whole is still in a weak recovery stage. In the first quarter of this year, the customs statistics showed that the export volume of construction machinery was $3.322 billion, down 17.44% year-on-year; The export volume decreased by 64.15% year-on-year, and the export price increased by 130.29% year-on-year. On April 27, some listed companies intensively disclosed the first quarterly report of 2013. The improvement of many models of products every year is the key to the "success" of performance. The performance of downstream enterprises in the construction machinery industry chain has risen, which shows that the market demand is gradually warming up

the construction machinery industry is one of the sub industries with the largest steel consumption in the machinery industry. In 2012, the consumption was just 15.2 million tons, accounting for 12.2% of the steel consumption in the machinery industry and 2.3% of the total steel consumption. According to the overall development trend of the machinery industry in 2013, considering the role of agricultural machinery, electrical appliances, petrochemical general machinery and other industries in stimulating consumption, it is expected that the steel consumption of the machinery industry will maintain a low-speed growth trend in 2013, and the annual steel consumption is expected to reach 131million tons, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year

to sum up, from the operation of the above industries since this year, the performance of industry data is relatively good. However, it is undeniable that since this year, the recovery of many industries, including construction machinery, has accelerated, which is mostly reflected in the production of enterprises. The main reason is that the market has increased its expectations for infrastructure investment, new urbanization construction and so on. In fact, the downstream market demand has not significantly improved

some data show that due to the previous active production of production enterprises, including steel, automobile, home appliances, construction machinery, real estate and many other industries have changed from rebuilding inventory to de stocking, except for the steel industry, the enthusiasm of other manufacturing industries to use the new gaskets attached to the experimental machine will be weakened. For related steel products such as hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, medium and heavy plate, automobile steel and many other varieties, it means that the demand of downstream industries may be reduced. On the one hand, the enthusiasm of steel enterprises for production has not decreased. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of statistics, the national crude steel output in April was 65.65 million tons, with a daily average of 2.19 million tons, an increase of 2.3% month on month. It indicates that the supply pressure in the future steel market continues to increase. On the other hand, most of the major manufacturing industries such as automobile and machinery have been in the high inventory stage because of their full production with good demand expectations. The PMI data of manufacturing industry in April showed that the new order index fell sharply, indicating that the manufacturing enterprises have moved into the de inventory stage, and their enthusiasm for production has been greatly reduced, thus restricting the sales of the upstream steel market. From this point of view, we believe that in the coming period of time, the main plate markets such as cold and hot rolling, medium and heavy plate will continue to face the low growth rate of downstream demand release, and the plate price will continue to maintain the pattern of easy to fall but difficult to rise. However, for example, the prices of the former medium and heavy plate, hot rolling and other steel grades have been at a low ebb, and the space for further reduction should be limited

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