The hottest month reduced the single watt price of

After the "531" new deal, the single watt price of photovoltaic modules is close to 2 yuan, and it is unlikely to rebound

"5 ˙ 31 "once the new photovoltaic policy of strictly controlling the scale was issued, it opened the sharp freeze period of the market, and the most intuitive reflection is the rapid decline of product prices. Polaris solar PV counted the bid opening prices of photovoltaic modules before the new deal and one month later. The monthly decline of 310W single crystal perc modules was 18%, and the lowest single watt price was close to 2 yuan. Snow and launched its first experiment in Dutch waters in June this year. What's worse is that the bid opening price is not the bid winning price. In order to increase the bid winning rate, there is still room for negotiation. In addition to the strong bargaining power of large orders of bidding enterprises, this also reflects the current tragic situation of enterprises competing for orders in the period of low demand

in addition to high-efficiency single crystal components, the prices of conventional single crystal and polycrystalline components fell by more than 12% in the month after the new deal, and the price of a single watt fell by 0.3-0.4 yuan. Some second-line component enterprises have made quotations of 1.7 yuan/watt or even lower. In the past 2017, data from PV InfoLink showed that from last year, "6 ˙ 30 "by the end of the year, the price of a single watt of conventional components was only reduced by about 0.2 yuan

affected by the sharp decline in China's domestic demand with an estimated total return on investment of 35.1%, pvmagazine analysts predict that the global PV module price will fall to about 1.78 yuan/watt by the end of 2018, and considering the continuous oversupply, the price is unlikely to rebound

2017 all the way high vs 2018 steep fall

back in 2017, the price of photovoltaic modules can be described as all the way high. “6 ˙ In the 30 "rush stage, domestic conventional components rose to 2.8-2.95 yuan/watt. After the rush, the market did not enter the traditional off-season as usual in previous years, and the component prices were strong

among them, the "Carnival" of domestic distributed photovoltaic and the centralized stocking caused by the "201" survey in the U.S. market are the main "catalysts" for the change of the price curve

according to the statistical data of the national energy administration, in the second half of 2017, the new installed capacity of domestic distributed photovoltaic reached 12.44gw, three times that of the whole year of 2016, becoming half the carnival of the photovoltaic market in 2017. On the other hand, new changes have taken place in the United States in the international market. The "201" survey triggered a surge of hoarding. In the third quarter of last year, the scale of components imported into the United States market reached 5-6gw. Supported by demand, the high price of photovoltaic modules in the second half of last year has continued since the end of the year. With the winter shutdown season, the price of conventional modules fell slowly to 2.68-2.7 yuan/watt

in 2018, when the temperature was calibrated, the box was closed and then a "6" ˙ 30 "rush to install did not effectively stimulate the rise in prices. According to energytrend, the price of a single watt of conventional components fell slightly from 2.5-2.6 yuan to 2.4-2.6 yuan from March to May

“6 ˙ "30" has not yet started, "5" ˙ The "31" new deal came suddenly, the ordinary power stations were suspended, and the distributed photovoltaic index of about 10GW was exhausted... While the domestic photovoltaic scale management mode "changed greatly", it directly announced the sharp decline of domestic demand. “5 ˙ One month after the "31" new deal, the price of a single watt of conventional components fell by 0.3-0.4 yuan. Under the sadness of market shutdown, shutdown and bankruptcy, the price may fall precipitously

is it difficult for prices to rebound? Q2 enters the era of "1" yuan in 2019

under the expectation that the market demand is difficult to improve, the price is unlikely to rebound

looking at the domestic market, the market demand in the second half of this year is mainly focused on photovoltaic poverty alleviation and the third batch of application leader base projects

2017 photovoltaic poverty alleviation indicators mainly include the part of some provinces that convert ordinary power stations to centralized poverty alleviation power stations and the part of the first batch of photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations in the 13th five year plan, with a total of about 13.8gw. According to the subsidy adjustment plan, the centralized photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations and some poverty alleviation power stations in the 13th five year plan have been completed in June ˙ 30 "before. The remaining part of the first batch of poverty alleviation power stations in the second half of the year, together with the upcoming second batch of about 4gw indicators, the scale of photovoltaic poverty alleviation in 2017 may not exceed 6Gw

the third batch of 5GW application leader projects will be completed at the end of the year as required, and the pull tide will start from the fourth quarter, all of which are high-efficiency components. However, under the benchmark of taking electricity price as the core evaluation index, the upper electricity price of this batch of leading projects has been reduced by more than 30%, and the lowest electricity price has reached 0.31 yuan/kWh, which is lower than the benchmark electricity price of local desulfurization coal. In order to ensure the return rate of the project, the power station investment owner is bound to exert pressure on the upstream component enterprises to reduce prices

in terms of the international market where enterprises place all their hopes, the statistical data of China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that in 2017, China's cumulative exports of photovoltaic modules were about 37.9gw. Experts in the industry pointed out that in order to make up for the domestic demand vacuum through overseas markets in the short term, exports need to maintain a growth rate of more than 100%. In the short term, this is obviously not suitable for industrialized 3D printing technology. In addition, in the Indian market, where it has just been proposed to impose defense tariffs on imported batteries and components, a front-line component enterprise analyzed that it is expected to be difficult to promote a surge of hoarding similar to last year's "201" investigation in the United States, as the specific tax rate, implementation time, traceability, etc. are still to be determined, and considering the fact that previous Indian trade cases have not been settled

while the demand is weak, the hidden worry of overcapacity in the market appears. Pvmagazine analysts pointed out that, taking the upstream polysilicon sector as an example, even if polysilicon producers reduce production, there will be a 22% surplus of products. At present, the production expansion plan of front-line enterprises is still carried out as planned, and the situation of excess supply and demand may not be alleviated in the next few years

the "cold winter" of the market in 2018 has been set, and the first half of 2019 may be more pessimistic. It is reported that at present, the number of distributed photovoltaic projects that have been filed but not merged across the country has reached 20gw+, and some projects may continue to wait in line for the 2019 indicators, which is likely to lead to the use up of distributed photovoltaic indicators in 2019 before they are issued. What should be done in 2019

previously, in the announcement of the bid winning enterprises of the third batch of technology leader projects, the expected single watt cost of components (battery conversion efficiency 23% and component conversion efficiency 20% in Q2 2019) was listed, with a minimum of 1.3 yuan, which caused an uproar in the industry at that time. But what do you think now

of course, the lowest point of photovoltaic price still depends on the profit and loss cost of upstream and downstream enterprises, especially the upstream silicon material. According to energytrend data, the price of polycrystalline silicon material in China last week was RMB 77-90/kg, and that of monocrystalline silicon material was RMB 90-100/kg