When will the most popular mainstream agricultural

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When will the market rebound when the mainstream agricultural machinery market tends to be saturated

in just half a year from Wuhan International Agricultural Machinery Exhibition last year to Zhengzhou National Agricultural Machinery Exhibition this year, the relevant person in charge of Huaibei municipal government said that the confidence of exhibitors in the agricultural machinery market had changed greatly. At the Wuhan International Agricultural Machinery Exhibition, agricultural machinery enterprises generally expected a "V" reversal in the agricultural machinery market in 2018, believing that the market would rebound with the weakening of the impact of the country II to country III factors. However, the expected rebound has not yet appeared. At the Zhengzhou National Agricultural Machinery Exhibition, enterprises generally showed disappointment and pessimism towards the market. So, how to judge the current agricultural machinery market? What is the trend

current situation: the downturn continued and did not usher in the expected market rebound

at the Wuhan International Agricultural Machinery Exhibition last year, the author discussed the trend of the agricultural machinery market in 2018? We had in-depth talks with more than a dozen enterprises. On the whole, it is generally believed that 2018 is worth looking forward to, but there are differences in views. The expectation of first-line enterprises is not as good as that of small enterprises, but the expectation of market rebound is the strongest. In 2017, the boss of a tractor enterprise in Weifang, Shandong Province, whose market sales increased by more than 500million yuan against the trend, thinks that he has the same supplier as LOVOL Heavy Industries, with high-quality products, but the price is more than 1/4 cheaper. He boldly says "I am cheap, I am afraid of who"; The impact on the agricultural machinery industry is relatively small. They think the market is OK, and they are generally full of confidence in 2018. However, for some products that people think have a good market and are expected to grow, such as rice transplanters, a well-known manufacturer in Jiangsu has made a judgment that the best situation in 2018 is basically flat or even declining; As for the grain dryer with rapid growth in successive years, a well-known enterprise in Anhui judged that the growth rate in 2018 would drop significantly

at this year's Zhengzhou National Agricultural Machinery Exhibition, when the author visited the enterprise again with the same problem, he found that the situation had changed greatly. The expected market rebound still only exists in the expectation. The front-line enterprises report that the market is quite bad, and price wars occur one after another. Although they are unwilling to be involved in the scuffle, they are also forced to be involved. Those enterprises that think they can impact first-line brands by price advantage are not as good as those that said "I am cheap, I am afraid of who" are constantly shaking their heads, saying that the market is much worse. Even a well-known Japanese funded enterprise in Jiangsu Province, which is based on quality in China's agricultural machinery market and has made enough money by raiding cities and land, said that its products will not be sold after the new year

after the interview, the author felt that enterprises generally lacked confidence in the market, and there was an atmosphere of disappointment and pessimism. The market manager of a first-line brand enterprise said that the market is still deteriorating. The author even heard the information that a front-line enterprise recently began to lay off staff

future: "L" type fluctuation will be a high probability event for a long time

how should the current agricultural machinery market be judged? What is the trend? The author comprehensively analyzes the new situation and new problems in the development of Agricultural Mechanization in China, and believes that unless there are special stimulating factors for growth in the future, it will be a high probability event for the agricultural machinery market to fluctuate in the "L" shape, while the probability of the "V" shape market is small

first of all, from the analysis of mainstream products that have the greatest impact on the growth of agricultural machinery market, there is a lack of demand to support the expansion of market scale. Since the state implemented the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery in 2004, the agricultural machinery market has entered a period of rapid expansion. From the perspective of stock, after more than ten years of growth, the amount of mainstream products such as tractors and combine harvesters is huge, which has been able to meet production needs. In the future, it will enter the market dominated by product renewal and technology upgrading. According to statistics, in 2016, the total power of national agricultural machinery reached 972455900 kW/1323069200 HP, and the average total power of agricultural machinery per mu reached 0.48 kW/0.654 HP; The country has 23.1702 million tractors/37.40706 million KW, equivalent to one tractor per 87 mu of arable land. In 2016, the sown area of wheat in China was 362.8 million mu, rice 454.3 million mu, and there were 1428300 sets of rice wheat combine harvesters. On average, there was one combine harvester per 254 mu of wheat and 318 mu of rice, with little room for growth; The corn area is 551.4 million mu, with 473900 corn combine harvesters. On average, one combine harvester is equipped for every 1163 mu of corn, with limited growth space. Therefore, the market of mainstream agricultural machinery products tends to be saturated, and the possibility of continued expansion of ownership is limited

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from the perspective of increment, the market scale of mainstream agricultural machinery products in the future basically depends on the amount of renewal. However, due to the promotion of appropriate scale operation, some small farmers withdraw from agricultural production, and the actual amount of renewal will be less than the theoretical value. Based on the value analysis of farmers' investment in tractors and combine harvesters, the possibility of cross regional operation is becoming less and less due to the growth of ownership. According to the analysis of agricultural mechanization production and agricultural machinery ownership in the National Agricultural Mechanization statistical annual report, in 2016, each tractor completed 78.34 mu of mechanized farming and 56.91 mu of Mechanized Sowing, each rice wheat combine actually collected 238 mu of wheat and 276 mu of rice, and each corn combine operated 776 mu, The investment value is small

a small number of agricultural machinery products other than mainstream products cannot bear the heavy responsibility of industry growth. As China enters the comprehensive and whole process agricultural mechanization promotion stage, in addition to the traditional three major grain crops, the mechanization of potato, cotton, rape, peanut, soybean, sugarcane and forage production, and even the mechanization of onion, ginger and garlic production, which enterprises once despised, are also put on the agenda. In the future, there will certainly be great development, and local market prosperity may be formed, creating a booming small industry, However, its impact on the growth of the whole agricultural machinery industry is limited, and it cannot bear the "important task" of supporting the growth of the whole industry. The reasons are as follows: first, the industry scale of these niche products is generally small. Taking the recent hot mechanized harvesting of sugarcane as an example, the size deviation and appearance of Table 1 of the national sugarcane planting area 2 are about 10million mu, and the mechanized short board is in the harvesting link. According to the analysis of Luoxiwen, academician of Chinese Academy of engineering and professor of South China Agricultural University, from the perspective of landform, less than 10% of sugarcane is suitable for the operation of large harvesters, about 40% for medium-sized ones, and about 50% for the full-scale engineering development of small and large aircraft engine cj1000a. The harvesting operation lasts for five months. It is estimated that the total demand for sugarcane combine harvesters in China is about 6000 units. The average price is calculated based on the medium-sized machines produced by Zoomlion. The total market volume is about 7billion yuan, accounting for only more than 1% of the total output value of agricultural machinery industry. Moreover, the actual annual growth is only 100 units at present. Second, a small number of agricultural machinery products are generally produced by small and medium-sized enterprises. Compared with complex technical requirements, the R & D capacity has a long process of technological maturity and slow market promotion. Third, some niche products are often associated with the production of characteristic and advantageous agricultural products, with regional characteristics. Therefore, although the unit profit of a small number of agricultural machinery products with a wide variety and limited total amount is high, most of them are difficult to achieve large-scale production, which is only an important factor affecting the agricultural machinery market

to sum up, although China is currently in the stage of comprehensive and whole process agricultural mechanization, many fields have obvious development needs, some fields still need to fill in gaps, and the development potential is great, the stock of mainstream agricultural machinery products determines that the agricultural machinery market will be in the "L" shape for a long time in the future. Unless there is a special strong stimulus, the probability of "V" reversal is small. Minority agricultural machinery products can create a prosperous market segment, but they are only a fluctuating factor in the agricultural machinery industry. The high-speed growth of several minority products may not equal the slight decline of mainstream products

impact: "L" type agricultural machinery market forces the industry to innovate and upgrade.

the emergence of "L" type agricultural machinery market means that the era of large slope growth in agricultural machinery sales has become history, market competition will become more intense, and it will be more difficult for agricultural machinery enterprises to make money. It can be said that after the golden period of agricultural machinery development, the time has come to truly test agricultural machinery entrepreneurs, but objectively it will also force the industry to upgrade, Improve the innovation ability and product quality, better meet the various needs of agricultural production, and promote the healthy development of the industry. Since the state implemented the subsidy policy for the purchase of agricultural machinery, the situation of making products around the subsidy policy characterized by scale verification will be improved

"L" type agricultural machinery market forces more agricultural machinery enterprises to pay more attention to the R & D and production of small agricultural machinery products. After the whole process mechanization technology for the production of major grain crops has been basically solved, minority agricultural machinery products will attract more enterprises to join them with their effective social demand, higher profits and relatively low market competition. Some small and medium-sized enterprises will become professional manufacturers of minority agricultural machinery products. In particular, the mechanization of key weak links in the production of cash crops and vegetables will be broken through. The inorganic availability of some production links in animal husbandry, fishery, fruit and vegetable tea, primary processing of agricultural products and hilly and mountainous areas will be significantly improved, and agricultural mechanization will truly enter a new era of all-round development

"L" type agricultural machinery market forces mainstream agricultural machinery products to accelerate industrial integration and industrial upgrading. The mainstream market of agricultural machinery products has become a market dominated by renewal. Although the imbalance of China's economic development determines the diversity of demand for agricultural machinery products, the customers that have the greatest impact on the market are mainly agricultural machinery cooperatives, agricultural production enterprises and large agricultural operators. The increase in product requirements and the reduction of market scale will inevitably lead to a fierce collision between excess production capacity and insufficient demand, It must undergo a reshuffle to rebuild the market competition pattern. In fact, in recent years, the market pattern of mainstream agricultural machinery products has been reshaped. Wheat harvesters and full feed rice harvesters have been basically completed. Corn combine harvesters are in a bloody battle, and the biggest variable will occur in the tractor market. First tier brands have been strongly impacted, and the market pattern has been significantly adjusted. At present, in the field of high-end products, it is dominated by international well-known brands and participated by domestic first-line brands, bearing strong market pressure; In the middle and low-end market, due to the homogenization of products, the second and third tier brands in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other provinces have risen rapidly, impacting the first-line brands with the price advantage (generally about 25% lower), and the first-line brands that are good at volume are facing great challenges and the greatest pressure, which may lead to a difficult period of time. It is difficult to predict who will win in the end

"L" type agricultural machinery market forces enterprises to improve their technological innovation ability. For a long time, China's agricultural machinery products have taken a shortcut of imitation. Large enterprises imitate foreign countries and small and medium-sized enterprises imitate domestic products. The product structure, function and performance are highly homogeneous and similar to each other. In fact, no one has really mastered the core technology, and no one has obvious technical advantages. In the case of strong market demand and sales as the king, all kinds of enterprises have developed together and have been relatively successful in meeting the needs of the middle and low-end market, but they have always done little in the high-end agricultural machinery market. Although many enterprises have developed high-power tractors, most of them are still in the prototype stage and have not really become commodities. The emergence of "L" type agricultural machinery market will urge some agricultural machinery enterprises to pay more attention to products, increase technological innovation capacity and R & D investment, and focus on products

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