The hottest policy is favorable, and the machinery

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Favorable policies in the second half of the year, the machinery industry is expected to continue to rise steadily

"with the further improvement of China's macroeconomic situation and the acceleration of the adjustment of the industrial structure of the machinery industry, the economic growth rate of the machinery industry is expected to continue to rise steadily, and the original annual growth target can be achieved." Caiweici, executive vice president of the China Machinery Federation, recently made the above prediction for the operation of the machinery industry in the second half of the year

investment risks in some industries are accumulating

although the machinery industry will show an upward trend in the future, the following problems still deserve attention

Cai Weici believes that for the agricultural machinery industry, although the policy effect was very significant in the first half of the year, some local machine purchase subsidies in the agricultural machinery industry exclude foreign products. What is more worrying is that the production of the agricultural machinery industry may decline sharply after the machine purchase subsidies are used up

although the year-on-year growth rate of the total output value of the automotive industry in the first half of the year has changed from negative to positive, the production and sales situation of commercial vehicles such as heavy-duty trucks is still depressed due to the limited coverage of policies

in addition, fixed asset investment in some industries increased strongly. At present, the risk of oversupply contradiction is rapidly accumulating in the fields of automobiles, large hydraulic presses, power transmission and transformation equipment, wind power equipment, engineering machinery and other popular products

some monopoly users invest heavily to build the company's "equipment manufacturing enterprise system directly under them", which not only contributes to blind investment, but also distorts the order of fair competition, which is contrary to the general direction of the reform of separation of main and auxiliary enterprises required by the state, and seriously dampens the enthusiasm of independent innovation of equipment manufacturing enterprises that have not entered their "direct system"

in view of the problems existing in the economy of China's machinery industry, Cai Weici put forward five suggestions:

don't pay too much attention to some foreign public opinion, and resolutely implement the policy of stimulating domestic demand. At present, the main contradiction in China is "discrimination against domestic products". Foreign funded enterprises have enjoyed too much super national treatment in the high-end equipment market for many years. Expanding foreign investment must stimulate domestic demand rather than purchasing a large number of foreign equipment

highlight the idea of structural adjustment and actively guide the direction of investment. First, it is suggested to invest more in basic technology research and development, key parts public relations, product reliability test, personnel quality training, etc; Second, it is suggested to organize the research on the industry development plan of the 12th Five Year Plan, give full play to the role of industry associations in the preparation of the common choice plan of global automobile manufacturers, and further highlight the direction of structural adjustment

accelerate the implementation of relevant policies and measures to revitalize the equipment manufacturing industry. It is suggested to issue supporting documents and implementation rules of relevant policies and measures in GF [2009] No. 11 document as soon as possible. In particular, we should strengthen government coordination in areas where equipment autonomy is relatively slow, and accelerate independent innovation in petrochemical equipment, automatic control systems, scientific testing instruments, etc

in order to encourage independent innovation of basic products, the practice of importing specific accessories and materials designated by users should be limited. Users should put forward requirements for final host products, but should not rigidly interfere with the selection of accessories and materials of host manufacturing enterprises. Otherwise, the upgrading of basic products will lose market support

it is suggested to implement the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax for commercial vehicles

the operation of the industry will show a trend of low in the front and high in the rear.

CAI Weici believes that the economic operation of the machinery industry this year is expected to show a trend of low in the front and high in the rear. It is expected that production and sales will increase by about 12% throughout the year. Fourth, fatigue testing machines. Different testing machines will be equipped with a lot of castings for use; It is difficult to achieve profit growth of about 8%; The original expectation of foreign exchange earning through export was the same as that of the previous year. Now it seems difficult to achieve it, and it is expected to decline by about 10%

taking all factors into consideration, Cai Weici said that the overall situation of the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2009 was as follows: in the first quarter, the downward trend in the second half of 2008 continued, and the growth rate of major economic indicators continued to fall back and fell to the bottom; With the implementation of the national policies and measures to promote economic growth, the machinery industry began to recover steadily from the bottom in the second quarter. In the second half of the year, it is expected to continue the rebound momentum in the second quarter and gradually accelerate the recovery speed. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to return to double-digit rapid growth

Cai Weici believes that the following factors are beneficial to the machinery industry

the state has made it clear that it will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to further warm up. Under the background that the specific force on this kind of specific indenter is exerted by Rockwell hardness testing machine, the demand for mechanical products in all walks of life is expected to continue to grow

the supply of energy and raw materials is relatively loose, which is conducive to the cost control and benefit improvement of the machinery industry

various national policies on adjusting and revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry, such as encouraging independent innovation, accelerating the renewal of automobiles, increasing the export tax rebate rate of some mechanical products, and value-added tax transformation, are being implemented, which will surely accelerate the pace of the development of the machinery industry

due to the sharp decline in the development speed of the machinery industry in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter, the comparison base in the second half of this year has been reduced, which is also more conducive to the improvement of the growth rate in the second half of this year

the main adverse factor is that insufficient external demand has not improved significantly. According to the research and analysis of the world bank, the prospect of global economic recovery is still difficult to predict, and the export market of machinery industry is difficult to significantly improve in the short term

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