The hottest policy is upward, and construction mac

2022-08-12
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Policy upward construction machinery waiting for recovery

Guide: in the decade from 2000 to 2010, the great development of infrastructure has brought obvious excess returns to the construction machinery sector for many times. However, in the first half of 2012, when overcapacity and downstream demand shrank, it became more difficult for the construction machinery sector to obtain excess returns, and the degree of dependence on policies also increased. Both interest rate cuts were

in the ten years from 2000 to 2010, the great development of infrastructure construction has brought obvious excess returns to the construction machinery sector for many times. However, in the first half of 2012, with overcapacity and shrinking downstream demand, it was more difficult for the construction machinery sector to obtain excess returns, and the degree of dependence on policies also increased. Both interest rate cuts brought benefits to the sector. This paper conducted a preliminary study on the high-value utilization of fly ash in plastics, "ultra short pulse market". With the recovery of infrastructure construction and the increase of willingness to start new real estate projects in the second half of the year, the construction machinery sector is expected to hit the bottom and rebound, but it will still be adjusted on the left in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the leading stocks whose performance growth rate is determined

interest rate cuts stimulate the short-term strength of the sector

as a typical fixed asset investment driven industry to achieve the goals of energy conservation, consumption reduction, environmental protection and green development, CITIC construction machinery industry has an extremely keen sense of changes in policies and macro fundamentals, which is transmitted to the engineering machinery sector and often performs well. The central bank cut interest rates twice this time, and each policy release has a certain pulling effect on the plate index

when the interest rate was cut for the first time, the CITIC construction machinery sector showed a short-term recovery, which lasted from June 8 to June 13, with a cumulative increase of 4.17%. When the interest rate cut policy opened twice, the CITIC construction machinery index ushered in a small rebound again, rising by 4.84% from July 6 to July 13, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.7% in the same period. In these two stages, the leading stocks of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, XCMG machinery, Liugong and Xiamen Engineering Group Co., Ltd. performed better, and the valuation level of these stocks was underestimated compared with other stocks in the sector. Therefore, when the interest rate cut was blowing, it was easy to attract a large number of research funds in iron-based, iron nickel based alloys and titanium alloys in recent years

analysts believe that the two interest rate cuts have substantial benefits for the construction machinery sector, mainly in three aspects. First, the interest rate cut has reduced the financial expenses of Listed Companies in the construction machinery industry. According to wind data statistics, the asset liability ratio (overall method) of the construction machinery industry in the first quarter was 58.56%. The long-term borrowings of Listed Companies in the industry totaled 17.213 billion yuan. Estimated at the one-year loan interest rate, two interest rate cuts will save financial costs of about 96.39 million yuan, of which Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry and Liugong have the largest amount of long-term borrowings and the largest amount of interest costs saved. Secondly, customers often purchase machines by means of financial leasing, mortgage, etc., and the interest rate reduction will save them the purchase cost, thus promoting the release of the demand side. Third, the easing of monetary policy has brought about the market's expectation of the recovery of downstream industries such as infrastructure, water conservancy and real estate, indirectly driving the recovery of midstream industries such as construction machinery

pay attention to the industry leader

interest rate reduction and other policies. Jinan assaying intelligent tensile testing machine is applicable to plastic film, composite film, soft packaging materials, adhesives, adhesive tape, self-adhesive, rubber, paper, aluminum-plastic plate and other products for tensile tests, elongation at break, peel strength, right angle tear, heat sealing strength, adhesive strength, puncture resistance test, low-speed unwinding force, stripping force and other performance tests, It is easy to stimulate the short-term strength of the construction machinery sector, but the sustainability is poor. In the medium and long term, the contraction of the downstream demand side caused by the large-scale shutdown of national infrastructure projects and the slowdown in the growth rate of fixed asset investment is the main factor dragging down the decline of the construction machinery sector. If the sector wants to get out of the beautiful upward trend line in the second half of the year, it also depends on whether the downstream demand side can recover

from the perspective of industry fundamentals, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 7.6%, which is very close to the GDP growth target of "7.5% this year", and the bottom signal of economic growth has been sent. With the clear statement of "appropriately increasing the pre adjustment and fine-tuning efforts of policies" made by the senior management, the start-up scale of infrastructure investment, affordable housing construction and other downstream industries in the second half of the year is expected to be higher. The recovery of downstream demand is expected to drive the construction machinery industry to bottom up, but the recovery is relatively limited, and the length of adjustment at the bottom is not clear

however, whether on the left or at the bottom, the structural market of individual stocks is still worth looking forward to, especially the leading stocks with stable performance and strong comprehensive competitiveness. If "the strong are always strong" is also interpreted within the sector, Zoomlion, the only leading stock in CITIC construction machinery sector that has been popular since the beginning of the year, deserves attention. As of yesterday, Zoomlion has risen 32.25%

performance may be an important factor affecting Zoomlion's dominance. The listed company has maintained a relatively stable performance growth rate from 2008 to 2011, with an average year-on-year growth rate (excluding non recurring profits and losses) of 59% in these four years. In the past four years, the performance growth has been stable and maintained a high average year-on-year growth rate, as well as four stocks, including Sany Heavy Industry, Linzhou heavy machinery, Nanfeng shares and Kangli elevator; Among them, Linzhou Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. and Kangli Elevator Co., Ltd. have issued interim report performance forecasts, both of which are slightly increased. The shares of Liugong, Shanhe intelligent, Fangyuan support and Shantui are all pre reduced, and CICC expects that the performance of Liugong, Shanhe intelligent and other companies will continue to decline sharply, and the annual performance may be reduced. Yesterday's limit decline in individual stocks was quite thrilling. In the process of the gradual expansion of the China Daily News market, investors should try to avoid stepping on "landmine stocks"

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