The hottest policy pressure remains, and the trend

2022-08-15
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The policy pressure remains the same, and the trend of Shanghai Jiao is mainly consolidation.

the trend of Shanghai Jiao in November can be described as ups and downs. First, the market rose due to the opening of the second quantitative easing policy in the United States, and the price soared, approaching the high of 39000 yuan/ton. Then, under the pressure of the new high of domestic CPI data, the continuous introduction of price control policies and the tightening of liquidity, the trend of Shanghai Jiao turned sharply downward, At present, the rubber price has returned to the starting point when it rose, and the market has temporarily stabilized at 30000 points. As the market mentality gradually stabilized, there was a relatively strong technical rebound after Shanghai Jiao stopped falling at 30000 points. We believe that in the last month of 2010, strong policy pressure will still become a powerful weapon to limit the rebound height of Shanghai Jiao. When the impact of various bad news on the market is gradually weakened, the trend of Shanghai Jiao will be mainly consolidation

the European debt crisis is still worrying, and the domestic tightening policy continues.

with the profit taking of dollar bulls, the dollar index began to callback, and it seems that people's concerns about the European debt crisis are gradually fading. However, after the EU's € 85billion rescue plan for Ireland was released, the market did not appreciate it. The price of credit default swaps (CDS) between Spain and Portugal rose to an all-time high on November 29, and the euro continued to fall. The president of the European Central Bank announced on December 2 that he would continue to provide special long-term liquidity support in 2011. Although it was in line with market expectations, it did not bring substantial changes to the troubled euro debt market, which had to make people doubt whether the European Central Bank had run out of skills to solve the European debt problem. At the same time, the market generally expects Portugal to be the next "domino" after Ireland. Although the Portuguese Prime Minister said that he was not under pressure to ask for help, the market did not buy it. Deutsche Bank in a research report 1. The relationship between foaming and bridging predicts that Portugal is "very likely" to seek IMF and EU assistance next year. Therefore, although the current European debt crisis is no longer the main focus of the market, we still need to pay attention to the threat of the European debt crisis to the market for the unsatisfactory European economy

domestically, the government kicked off a new round of monetary policy adjustment last month: raising the deposit reserve twice in a month; The State Council has introduced a number of measures to curb the rise in prices; The central bank demanded to control the year-end loan impulse. At present, the momentum of rising prices has been curbed, but the situation of loose liquidity and the continuous influx of hot money still exists. At the end of November, the one-year central bank note issued by the central bank was only 1billion yuan, which was a historical volume. In addition, the primary and secondary market interest rates of central bank note continued to hang upside down. The increase of central bank note issuance interest rate was imminent, and it was also imminent to raise interest rates again. The central economic work conference of all circles is about to be held, and there is news that the word "maintaining growth" will no longer be mentioned. The credit target is to fall below 7 trillion yuan, and the expectation of domestic monetary policy tightening begins to take shape

at present, the liquidity of the US dollar continues to show an abundant trend, while the liquidity of the RMB is in a tight state under the domestic tightening monetary policy, and the monetary policy pattern of loose outside and tight inside has been formed, which is the main reason for the current volatility of commodity prices. The deformation of the original sample is basically uniform everywhere. Although the inter Korean crisis has been temporarily diluted, it shows that geopolitics is a factor that cannot be ignored, and the impact is basically polycarbonate. Once affected by market risk aversion, it will push up the US dollar in a short time, thus further suppressing the trend of commodities

the price is high, the demand is low, and the fundamentals are temporarily balanced.

according to the growth law of natural rubber, the fourth quarter is the peak season for rubber tapping in Southeast Asia, the main rubber producing area. However, due to frequent natural disasters this year, the output of all countries has decreased significantly. As of October this year, the cumulative output of global natural rubber production has increased by 6.46% over the same period in 2009. However, due to the introduction of quotation measures to limit production in various rubber producing countries at the beginning of 2009 and the low output affected by the El Nino phenomenon in the middle of the year, the base number at the end of 2009 was low. If compared with the normal year 2008, the cumulative output from January to October this year has decreased by 1.9% year-on-year to see which model of experimental machine is suitable for my normal operation. The supply side of Thailand, the largest production area, continues to be tight. Disturbed by rainstorms, the peak season of raw material supply is not prosperous. The damage of rubber trees directly leads to the reduction of raw material supply, and the annual production capacity may be reduced by 300000 tons

comparison chart of weekly trend of rubber inventory in Shanghai

tight supply led to high prices of natural rubber. In this case, downstream tire enterprises on the edge of loss significantly slowed down the procurement progress. It is understood that in the early stage, tire dealers continued to increase tire inventory due to the expected rise in tire prices. At present, with the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber raw materials, the process of increasing inventory has come to an end. In addition, as the funds are tight near the end of the year, dealers have turned to profit-making shipments, and the recent purchase volume from tire manufacturers has been significantly reduced, which also leads to difficulties for tire enterprises in shipping. At present, many tire enterprises have successively reduced their production capacity, and some large factories have reduced their production capacity by nearly 30%, which means that the demand for rubber will be reduced by nearly 300000 tons in a quarter

it can be seen from the fundamentals of natural rubber that at present, although the supply of natural rubber has not eased the tension, the slowdown in demand has led to the rebalancing of the fundamentals. In addition, from the stock of natural rubber in the previous period, we can also see that as of November 19, the weekly inventory report showed that the inventory of natural rubber warehouse receipts increased by 1585 tons to 46990 tons, and the total inventory increased by 705 tons to 60996 tons. Especially in the past two weeks, a large number of spot goods have poured into the exchange, and the historical low inventory that had been maintained for half a year has been greatly improved. At present, the inventory of natural rubber has returned to the normal level in 2006 and 2007, and there is another point that can be leveraged by the Bulls who speculated in the early stage

multiple regulation and control inhibit speculation, and the outflow of funds is obvious.

while the national development and Reform Commission has continuously introduced measures to suppress prices, the three domestic commodity futures exchanges have also introduced various measures to curb speculation. After the close of trading on November 24, the three exchanges successively announced that they would increase the margin level of each futures variety to more than 10%, cancel the preferential opening and closing fee on the same day, and increase the limit range of each variety at the same time. Among them, the margin ratio of natural rubber was raised to 13%, and the range of rise and fall was limited to 6%. The charging standard of transaction handling fee was adjusted from 1/10000 of the current transaction amount to 1/10000.5 of the transaction amount. At the same time, the exchanges are also strengthening the supervision and prevention of insider trading

market supervision has been strengthened, resulting in a sharp decline in the position of Shanghai Jiao, a variety with a strong speculative atmosphere. Regardless of the long and short sides, funds began to tend to be cautious. The 1105 contract of the main force of Shanghai Jiaotong has been reduced from the total position of nearly 250000 hands at the highest to 120000 hands at the lowest, especially the departure of bulls. From the perspective of the top 20 long and short positions of the main force, the net long positions have decreased significantly, once less than 1000 hands. As the futures price stabilized and rebounded, the net long positions increased slightly, but most of them were short sellers who took the initiative to make profits and left the market, and long sellers did not follow up actively, mostly in the short term. It can be seen that the strength of bulls has not yet recovered. In the current situation of intensive policy regulation and bad news, the Shanghai rubber market will still be controlled by bears in the near future

main position chart of Shanghai Jiao 1105 contract

to sum up, the supply and demand of Tianjiao is balanced, and the price trend in the short term will be more subject to macro factors. Under the monetary policy of loose outside and tight inside, violent price fluctuations are inevitable. Since November 23, the Shanghai Jiao futures price has completed a 10% correction, and the support at the 30000 point mark is obvious. At the same time, the strengthening of the external market and the departure of the main short sellers' profits will also push up the futures price. However, the gradual tightening of domestic monetary policy will limit the rebound of Shanghai Jiaotong in December. At the same time, 33000 point is also a relatively important technical pressure. It is expected that the price will be blocked here, and then the market will be dominated by consolidation

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