The hottest policy has a dual impact on the econom

2022-08-21
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The dual impact of policy and economy has slowed down the growth rate of the auto market this year

recently, the 2017 China auto market development prediction summit to improve the understanding of standards for practitioners, hosted by the China Association of automobile manufacturers and the Changsha Municipal People's government, was held in Changsha. Leaders of the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the National Bureau of statistics and other relevant national ministries and commissions, as well as industry experts and auto enterprise representatives gathered together to review the hot spots in the domestic auto market in 2016, It also predicted the domestic macroeconomic situation in 2017, the development situation of new and used car markets and auto finance

the sales volume in 2016 may increase by 13.9%

the data of China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association) shows that from January to November 2016, China's automobile production and sales were 25.027 million and 24.948 million, with a year-on-year increase of 14.26% and 14.11%, and the year-on-year increase of sales was 10.8 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year

"it should be said that the production and sales growth of the domestic car market this year is better than the expectations of the industry and enterprises at the beginning of the year." Xuhaidong, Assistant Secretary General of the China Association of automobile manufacturers, believes that the "unexpected joy" of the growth of the car market in 2016 is mainly due to the stabilization of China's economic operation trend. Under the dual stimulus of the macroeconomic recovery mainly driven by real estate and the national policy of halving the purchase tax on vehicles with a displacement of 1.6L and below, the domestic passenger car market has shown a high growth trend. Based on this, the China Automobile Association predicts that the annual auto sales volume this year is expected to exceed 28million, with an increase of 13.9%. At the same time, this will also improve the base of year-on-year growth of the automotive market next year

similarly, affected by the changes in the macroeconomic situation and the preferential policies for the purchase tax of small displacement models, the experts present at the meeting predicted that the growth rate of the automotive market in 2017 would fall significantly

Jiang Yuan, deputy director of the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that macroeconomic adverse factors and uncertainties increased significantly in 2017, and the driving force of economic growth will weaken to varying degrees. "The policy adjustment faced by the real estate industry will have a deep impact on the automobile market next year. Both industries have a large drop in GDP, and the overall economic situation is still at the bottom stage." Jiang Yuan stressed, "considering that the macro-economy does not have the momentum of substantial growth next year, it may be difficult for the automobile market to maintain the growth momentum this year. However, the position and role of automobile in the industrial field has gradually become prominent. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, the proportion of the output value of the automobile industry in the manufacturing industry has risen from the sixth to the third, and the profit has been in the first place."

Xu Haidong pointed out that from 2011 to 2015, China's passenger car market grew steadily driven by rigid demand, mainly driven by economic growth; The growth from 2015 to 2016 was mainly stimulated by the preferential policies for the purchase tax of small displacement vehicles, while the GDP in 2016 is expected to grow by 6.7% year-on-year, the investment growth rate fell slightly, the export continued to grow negatively, and the consumption growth rate rose slowly. When the economic growth rate in 2017 was only low compared with this year, the purchase tax of small displacement vehicles was adjusted again, and the production and sales growth rate of the automotive market was bound to fall

the dual impact of policy and economy will slow down next year

since the adjustment plan of the preferential purchase tax policy for small displacement models at that time has not been officially announced, the China Automobile Association has given two forecasts for the growth of the passenger car market in 2017

if the preferential purchase tax policy for small displacement vehicles is continued in 2017, the growth rate of passenger cars is expected to be 6.5% and the sales volume will be 26.1 million units. Among them, the sales volume of cars was 11.492 million, down 7.4% year on year; The sales volume of SUVs was 11.42 million, with a year-on-year increase of 25.6%; MPV sales volume was 2.65 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; The sales volume of crossover passenger cars was 538000, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%

if the preferential purchase tax policy for small displacement vehicles is completely withdrawn, the growth rate of passenger cars is expected to be 2% in 2017, and the sales volume will be 24.98 million units. Among them, the sales volume of cars was 11.066 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%; The sales volume of SUVs was 10.926 million, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%; MPV sales volume was 2.5 million, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year; The sales volume of crossover passenger cars was 488000, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%

for the commercial vehicle market that is not affected by the policy changes, the China Automobile Association expects its overall sales volume in 2017 to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 3.58 million, including 504000 passenger cars, a year-on-year decline of 3%; The sales volume of trucks was 3.076 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%

in other words, if the preferential policy of purchase tax for small displacement vehicles continues, the annual vehicle sales in 2017 will be 29.68 million, an increase of 6% year-on-year; If the policy is withdrawn, the annual auto sales volume will be 28.56 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. According to the new policy of small displacement vehicle purchase tax recently issued by the Ministry of Finance on many key nodes of Shandong innovation group's exploration, transformation and emergence, "from January 1 to December 31, 2017, vehicle purchase tax will be levied at the rate of 7.5% on passenger vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below; from January 1, 2018, vehicle purchase tax will be levied at the statutory rate of 10%. Then the year-on-year growth of vehicle sales in 2017 is expected to be between 2% and 6%

At the same time, Xu Haidong also pointed out several characteristics and trends of the domestic automobile market in the future

first, the population size of the main consumer will be reduced. At present, people aged 25-35 are the mainstream automobile consumers. According to the changes in the size of the country's birth population in each year, the mainstream automobile consumers have been increasing in the past five years, but by 2020, the size of the population aged 25-35 will begin to decline, and the main population base of car purchasing will still decrease in the future

second, the first and second tier cities have generally entered the middle and late stage of automobile popularization, and the market growth will slow down due to negative factors such as car purchase restrictions, traffic congestion, high living costs and so on. In contrast, the third tier cities will drive the growth of entry-level vehicle sales with the increase of residents' income and the release of consumption, and will become the main incremental source of the automotive market in the future; However, due to its large regional span and uneven economic development, the market demand release cycle is long, and the sales volume increases in waves

third, SUV has become the main force of market supply and demand. On the one hand, in the context of the decline of consumer groups, SUVs are still standing and will become the main demand of the future automotive market: the survey shows that 82.1% of the people who are interested in buying cars say they are considering buying SUVs. On the other hand, from the perspective of product supply, about 130 SUV models sold more than 1000 units in 2016, and more than 40 new SUV models are expected to be launched in 2017; At present, independent brands put products under 80000 yuan and 80000-100000 yuan, and tentatively enter the range of 150000-200000 yuan. Joint venture brands will increase the investment in small SUVs of 100000-150000 yuan while deepening the range of 200000-300000 yuan. These ranges will be the main incremental markets next year

the used car market is about to usher in an inflection point

in addition to the new car consumer market, the used car market, which has become popular in the whole industry this year, is also the focus of the summit

as we all know, the circulation of second-hand car market has a decisive impact on new car sales. According to the data of China Association of automobile manufacturers and China Association of automobile dealers, the number of new car sales promoted by second-hand car replacement accounted for 38.2% of the total new car sales in 2015, and even more than 50% in big cities such as Beijing and Nanjing. On the day of the summit, Gao Ming, vice president of youxinpai, a domestic used car dealer giant, elaborated on the development status and prediction of China's used car market from three aspects: poor circulation, prominent problems and good development prospects

Gao Ming said that due to the "limited relocation" policy of second-hand cars, the high tax burden of second-hand car dealers, inconvenient transfer of ownership, imperfect credit system and other factors, the circulation and development of China's second-hand car market is not optimistic at present. Data show that from 2000 to 2015, the total volume of used car transactions in China continued to grow, but the growth rate showed a downward trend. The relatively lagging development of the second-hand car market undoubtedly also affects the sales of new cars: in 2015, factors such as the poor circulation of second-hand cars and the extension of the replacement cycle led to a reduction of 4.22 million new cars sold nationwide; In contrast, in the same year, 17million new cars were sold in the United States, while 39million used cars were traded

however, the above problems are gradually being solved, and the development prospect of the used car market is very broad

first, the policy environment is constantly improving. In the 2016 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang specifically proposed "invigorating the used car market" in the part of "deeply tapping the potential of domestic demand and exploring greater space for development". In March this year, the general office of the State Council officially issued the "several opinions on promoting the convenient trading of used cars" (hereinafter referred to as the "opinions"), and then the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on further implementation of the "opinions", The opinions has been carefully divided from eight aspects, and many measures have been put forward, such as the first payment ratio of used car loans can be independently determined on the basis of 30%, and the establishment of a second-hand car information joint verification mechanism to trace the source

secondly, the foundation of China's used car market is very large. The data shows that at present, the national car ownership exceeds 180million, and it is estimated that it will reach 300million in the mature stage, with a growth space of nearly 100%; Since 2009, new vehicles in China have entered the replacement period, and the used car market has entered the peak supply. At the same time, the current used car market pattern is still scattered, the competition is not fierce, and it is in a good time window

third, the business model of the second-hand car market has been constantly innovated, with the emergence of second-hand car information platforms such as second-hand car home, Ganji, 58 city and first car, comprehensive data service platforms such as car 300, precision evaluation, fair price and car bug, C2C platforms such as Renren car, melon seeds and good car carefree, B2B auction platforms such as Youxin auction and Cheyi auction, C2B auction platforms such as Tiantian auction and chexiang second-hand car, as well as Youxin second-hand car, chemao A large number of new models with high efficiency, good service and relatively perfect credit system, represented by B2C shopping platforms such as Youche Chengpin, serve individuals and car dealers with second-hand car trading needs in all links of the industrial chain, which can be described as a hundred flowers bloom

fourth, as the "identity" of cars changes from an important family asset to a simple means of transportation, the consumer psychology and habits of domestic car consumers are changing. The data shows that the proportion of new car users under the age of 35 has increased from 26% in 2013 to 36%, and that of used car users under the age of 35 accounts for more than 60%. The younger consumer group makes used cars more acceptable to the market

based on the above judgment, Gao Ming believes that "China's used car market is about to usher in an inflection point in the rapid growth." Li Qun, director of marketing and sales of SAIC General Motors Finance Co., Ltd., predicted that the domestic used car sales will reach 11million in 2016, and the used car market will maintain an annual growth rate of more than 20% in the next five years. It is expected to reach nearly 25million in 2020

auto finance is poised to enter the golden age

it has potential in energy storage devices and composite materials, and the next development of both the new car market and the used car market cannot be separated from the support of auto finance. On December 27, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued a decision on Amending the 2004 version of the measures for the administration of auto loans (Exposure Draft), which relaxed the scope of borrowers and borrowing conditions. It can be seen that the attitude of the central bank has changed from controlling the auto loan market to supporting and guiding. Auto finance, which is in the ascendant, is undoubtedly standing at the tuyere of the auto industry. On the day of the summit, the marketing director of SAIC General Motors Finance Co., Ltd

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